Whether It's Clinton Or Trump, The Dollar Could Be In Trouble

Regardless of which U.S. presidential candidate wins the election in November, the U.S. dollar could get hit pretty hard. According to Bloomberg’s Taylor Hall, currency traders are warning of a repeat of 1995, when a trade dispute between the U.S. and Japan sent the dollar tumbling versus the yen.

Hillary Clinton has said that she plans on naming a chief trade prosecutor, triple the number of trade prosecutors and will specifically look into Chinese abuses and currency manipulation.

Donald Trump has been even more extreme in his trade rhetoric. Trump has accused China of being a currency manipulator and has proposed countervailing duties on Chinese exports and a 35 percent tariff on imports from U.S. companies producing goods in Mexico.

“We’re guaranteed trade tensions of some sort under the next president – severe trade conflict under Trump, moderate trade tensions under Clinton,” JPMorgan analyst John Normand explained.

Related Link: Trump At A $40 Million Cash Disadvantage Versus Clinton

JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, HSBC Holdings and Credit Suisse all see the euro and the yen as the major beneficiaries of a weaker dollar.

U.S. sovereign credit default swaps recent reached their highest level in more than two years.

So far this year the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE: UUP) is down 5.0 percent while the Guggenheim CurrencyShares Euro Trust (NYSE: FXE) is up 3.1 percent.

Disclosure: The author holds no position in the stocks mentioned.