Is Panera Baking Up A Bountiful Q2? Piper Jaffray Checks In

Piper Jaffray maintained its Overweight rating and $237 price target on Panera Bread Co (NASDAQ: PNRA) after its checks suggest new product introductions support top-line momentum for the second quarter.

For the second quarter, analyst Nicole Miller Regan reiterated her +4.0 percent company-owned same-store sales estimate for the second quarter, in line with consensus, and now project EPS of $1.73, in line with the company's guidance of $1.72–$1.77 (versus consensus of $1.75).

For the year, the analyst's EPS estimate remains $6.60 (at the mid-point guidance and versus consensus at $6.69), as she still expects 2016 likely being more about stabilization following brand investments in 2015.

"We are buyers of PNRA shares following our recent checks that suggest Panera's new culinary introductions during the quarter (specifically new salads) are driving traffic and sales," Miller Regan wrote in a note.

"Although still early, we believe our checks may also suggest that consumers are crediting incremental visits to Panera on products being both differentiated and as having an increasingly health conscious appeal," Miller Regan continued.

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The analyst sees this as an encouraging sign amid company's ongoing efforts around reinvesting in food quality and removing artificial flavorings and additives.

Longer term, Regan still believes Panera will record consistent restaurant-level performance and additional earnings benefits from early stage CPG and digital ordering efforts via brand modernization.

"We believe current trends support both the company's growth objectives and our expectations for near 2x earnings power in the FY19 period (vs. FY15). Looking forward we view 2016 as generally being a year of stability before Panera returns to double digit earnings growth in 2017 and beyond," Regan added.

At time of writing, shares of Panera Brand had gained 0.57 percent on the day to $213.54.

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