Raymond James Revises Red Robin Estimates Lower After CEO, Q1 Announcements

Hamburger chain Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (NASDAQ: RRGB) announced Wednesday that CEO Denny Marie Post will step down immediately, and the company simultaneously pre-announced disappointing first-quarter metrics.

The Analyst

Raymond James' Brian Vaccaro maintains a Market Perform rating on Red Robin Gourmet Burgers.

The Thesis

Post's resignation as CEO will take place immediately and follows a "challenging" 12-18-month period for the company, Vaccaro said in a Thursday note.

The burger chain struggled to report encouraging dine-in comps in a competitive environment where larger competitors have gained market share, the analyst said. 

Management also pre-announced a weaker-than-expected first-quarter same-store sales decline of 3.6 percent versus expectations of negative 1.5 percent, Vaccaro said. The company attributed 100 to 150 basis points of the decline to poor weather, he said. 

Red Robin's disappointing guidance prompted Raymond James to revise its 2019 book EBITDA estimate lower from $121 million to $115 million. The new estimate is short of Red Robin's own guidance of $121 million to $126 million.

In addition, Raymond James lowered its 2020 EBITDA estimates from $120 million to $114 million, and this revision assumes that comps will improve to slightly positive.

Price Action

Red Robin shares were down 2.41 percent to $27.54 at the time of publication Thursday. 

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Photo by Cbraccialini/Wikimedia.