Why Nvidia's China Comeback Could Propel Its Stock To New Heights

Needham analyst N. Quinn Bolton maintained a Buy rating on Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and raised the price forecast from $160 to $200 on Wednesday.

Nvidia is preparing to resume shipments of its H20 GPUs to China after the U.S. government approved export license filings, according to CEO Jensen Huang, Bolton noted. The green light comes after April's export controls blocked $2.5 billion in H20 shipments during fiscal first-quarter 2026 and halted another $8 billion in scheduled deliveries for fiscal second-quarter 2026, the analyst said.

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Nvidia had already generated $4.6 billion in H20 revenue before the license requirement took effect and recorded a $4.5 billion charge for H20 inventory and purchase obligations in first-quarter, he told.

Bolton responded by sharply raising his financial forecasts. He now conservatively projects $3 billion in H20 shipments per quarter over the coming quarters and estimates that previously written-down H20 inventory could generate nearly 100% gross margin when sold.

Bolton also sees additional upside from Nvidia's expected launch of Blackwell GPU variants tailored for the Chinese market—B30 and B40/RTX 6000D—with performance estimated at ~75% of the H20. These variants, priced between $6,500 and $8,000 (versus $10,000–$12,000 for H20), are reportedly in high demand, with over $1 billion in orders already placed, he noted. Volume shipments could begin as early as August or September, he said.

Reflecting these developments, Bolton increased his fiscal third-quarter and fourth-quarter 2026 revenue estimates by $4 billion each, fiscal 2027 revenue estimate to $265.0 billion and EPS to $6.20 (from $250.0 billion and $5.80), fiscal 2026 revenue to $202.6 billion and EPS to $4.42 (from $194.6 billion and $4.17).

Bolton introduced fiscal 2028 estimates with $315.0 billion in revenue and EPS of $7.25, including $20 billion from China data center GPU sales

Bolton noted Nvidia is well-positioned to recapture lost sales and gain further traction in China, even under export restrictions, thanks to rapid product adaptation and sustained demand from Chinese tech firms.

NVDA Price Action: NVDA stock is trading lower by 0.40% to $170.02 at last check on Wednesday.

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