What Does This Friday The 13th Mean For The Stock Market?
This Friday, Jan. 13 might bring more joy than superstition to stocks if history is a guide.
Despite the market's struggles with volatility that show no sign of ending as the Federal Reserve continues to wrestle with inflation, this superstition-laden day could modestly flip it to the upside, according to data compiled by "The Stock Trader’s Almanac" author Jeffrey Hirsch.
What Happened: Since 1930, when Friday the 13th fell in the month of January, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) has seen a return of 0.01%.
The ETF had traded 13 times in January on Friday the 13th and closed higher seven of those 13 times.
Date |
Close |
Return |
1/13/1933 |
7.25 |
0.28% |
1/13/1939 |
12.33 |
-1.12% |
1/13/1950 |
16.67 |
-0.54% |
1/13/1956 |
44.67 |
-0.18% |
1/13/1961 |
59.60 |
0.47% |
1/13/1967 |
84.53 |
0.74% |
1/13/1978 |
89.89 |
-0.14% |
1/13/1984 |
167.02 |
-0.44% |
1/13/1989 |
283.87 |
0.25% |
1/13/1995 |
564.97 |
0.94% |
1/13/2006 |
1287.61 |
0.12% |
1/13/2012 |
1289.09 |
-0.49% |
1/13/2017 |
2274.64 |
0.18% |
1/13/2023 |
??? |
??? |
Average: 0.01% |
When the six down days were removed, the S&P 500 returned a modestly bullish 0.12%.
This ties January with March and May for the sixth-best month for Friday the 13th's impact on the market, behind February, April, October and November.
The historic trend might cause the S&P 500 and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE: DIA) to push higher.
In contrast, June and August closed higher more times than lower when Friday the 13th landed in those months, returning an average 0.49% and 0.48%, respectively.
“Since 1930, the S&P 500 has traded a grand total of 156 Friday 13th across all 12 months,” Hirsch said on Twitter Thursday. “The overall track record is 86 up days and 70 down days with a modestly bullish average gain of 0.04% on all Friday 13ths.”
Read Next: What's Next For The Markets After Inline CPI, With Q4 Earnings Looming?
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