We're Using Gasoline At A Record-Setting Pace In 2016

Americans are taking advantage of historically low oil and gasoline prices like never before. In a new report, Macquarie analyst Vikas Dwivedi discusses the record pace of gasoline consumption in the U.S. so far in 2016 and what it means for refiners. According to the report, gasoline demand is up 3.2 percent so far this year and on pace to break the all-time record of 9.3 million BPD.

“Despite investor angst in Dec 15 and Jan 16 when US gasoline demand faltered, we maintained and continue to maintain our view that US gasoline demand will grow 125 K BPD to 150 K BPD in 2016; a counter consensus view throughout much of 2015 when the ‘one year demand elasticity’ mantra was in full swing,” Dwivedi explains.

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He notes that even the EIA has gotten gasoline demand projections wrong and has already revised projections upward numerous times.

Dwivedi also addresses the misconception that the current strong demand is due to refiners pushing winter grade gasoline into the market to clear it out for summer grade. He says this same phenomenon happens every year and wouldn’t account for this year’s exceptional demand.

Macquarie continues to see refiners with medium/heavy feedstock optimization and access to the strongest U.S. markets as the big winners. The firm’s top stock picks are Tesoro Corporation (NYSE: TSO), Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO), PBF Energy Inc (NYSE: PBF) and HollyFrontier Corp (NYSE: HFC).

Disclosure: the author holds no position in the stocks mentioned.