Biogen Optionality Looking Attractive; Bernstein Initiates At Outperform

Biogen Inc (NASDAQ: BIIB) has an aging MS franchise, but a solid biosimilar pipeline is sure to offset the loss of Tecfidera, Avonex and Tysabri. Bernstein's Aaron Gal initiated Biogen at outperform and set a price target of $282.

The multiple sclerosis franchise has a five-year runway as competition increases in the market. Post 2020, Gilenya generics, second generation S1P1 modulators and fumarates are "likely to accelerate the decline of the franchise," Gal stated.

Related Link: Stiff Biosimilar Headwinds To Negatively Impact Amgen's Aging Drug Portfolio

Tecfidera will grow less than 5percent, Avonex will be soft and Ocrelizumab will hurt Tysabri, Gal said. In the near term, the Tecfidera generic risk will start to be priced into the stock. Also Tysabri biosimilars will certainly being to be developed.

A good pipeline keeps Gal excited about the company's "optionality."

"We are very positive on Biogen's biosimilar Remicade, Humira, and Enbrel," Gal noted. These drugs are early to their markets and the EU market will adopt biosimilar aTNFs faster than most expect. By 2020 Gal expects $470 million in sales. Nusinersen is likely to penetrate the market by 2020 and expects to garner $900 million in sales. The street views Opicinumab as "essentially dead," but Gal noted Biogen received expected results from a cluster of patients.