UnitedHealth Prognosis Mixed: Analysts Trim Targets But Keep Faith After Q2 Miss

Shares of UnitedHealth Group Inc (NYSE:UNH) remained volatile in early trading on Wednesday, after a downbeat second-quarter report.

Here are some key analyst takeaways.

• Piper Sandler analyst Jessica Tassan maintained an Overweight rating, while reducing the price target from $353 to $317.
• KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Matthew Gillmor maintained an Overweight rating, while cutting the price target from $400 to $350.
• Oppenheimer analyst Michael Wiederhorn reaffirmed an Outperform rating, while lowering the price target from $400 to $325.

Check out other analyst stock ratings.

Piper Sandler: UnitedHealth provided "unprecedented transparency into business mix, earnings drivers and pricing assumptions/ cost trends across UHC and Optum," Tassan said in a note. Management reinstated its full-year guidance.

Adjusted earnings of $16 per share are shy of the $18-$19 per share consensus.

The company seems to have diagnosed its problems and established "a de-risked path to remediation," the analyst stated. This will likely allow it to generate high-teens adjusted earnings growth in 2026 and 2027. UnitedHealth revised LT target operating margins for UHC’s Medicare business from 3.00-5.00% to 2.00-4.00%; and revised LT target operating margins at Optum Health from 8.00-10.00% to 6.00-8.00%," she further wrote.

KeyBanc Capital Markets: UnitedHealth Group's medical loss ratio of 89.4% marked a 430 basis points year-on-year improvement, Gillmor said. Optum Insight generated revenue of $5.2 billion, in-line with expectations, despite $1.2 billion of unfavorable items, he added.

"Optum Health continues to be impacted by known pressures, including higher costs, v28, and new member mix," the analyst wrote. The company's earnings guidance may have been disappointing, but established "a credible floor," he further stated.

Oppenheimer: UnitedHealth reinstated its 2025 guidance, with adjusted earnings projected at $16 or more, Wiederhorn said. This could "prove to be trough earnings, as it returns to growth in 2026 and beyond," he added.

"The 2025 guidance assumes the bottom-end or below target ranges across Medicare, Medicaid, Commercial, and OptumHealth, but should improve dramatically over the next two years as it re-prices the respective books," the analyst further wrote.

UNH Price Action: Shares of UnitedHealth Group had risen by 0.61% to $262.65 at the time of publication on Wednesday.

Read More:

• UnitedHealth Hit By $6.5 Billion Medical Cost Blowout: Launches AI-Led Overhaul, Drops 600K Members To Regain Margins — ‘These Are Serious Challenges’

Image: Shutterstock